Predicting and Confirming Ovulation: Getting the Full Ovulation Picture

Written by: Dr. Amy Beckley, PhD, Founder and Inventor of the Proov test — the first and only FDA-cleared test to confirm successful ovulation at home.

Written on 5/09/20

Updated on 9/8/21

For quite some time women have used various methods to predict when ovulation will occur –  LH testing, cervical mucus monitoring, and basal body temperature monitoring, just to name a few. But, this has left out one piece of the puzzle: if they actually ovulated.

While ovulation predictor kits predict ovulation, there hasn’t been a device that can accurately confirm healthy ovulation, which is crucial when trying to conceive. Though it seems like the same thing, there’s a huge difference between predicting and confirming ovulation. Understanding both parts can help you better understand your cycle when it comes to conception!

It is important to understand that not all ovulation is created equally.

Basics on Ovulation

Ovulation is the part of a woman’s cycle when an egg is released from the ovary. In a 28-day cycle, ovulation usually occurs on day 14, in between the follicular and luteal phases.

When ovulation happens, the ovarian follicles are stimulated by follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) and luteinizing hormone (LH) to rupture to release the egg. It usually takes 36-48 hours after the LH surge for the follicle rupture.

As the egg travels through the fallopian tube, the empty follicle (now called the corpus luteum) starts to produce the hormone progesterone. During the luteal phase, progesterone prepares the uterine lining for implantation, making it “sticky” enough to receive an embryo, if the egg has been fertilized by sperm.

It is important to understand that not all ovulation is created equally. “Successful” ovulation is when an egg is released and the corpus luteum produces enough progesterone to support a fertilized embryo.

Suboptimal, or “weak”, ovulation is when an egg is released, but the corpus luteum isn’t producing a healthy level of progesterone. This means that even if an egg is released and is fertilized, the uterine lining may not be sufficiently prepared to receive that embryo. Having suboptimal ovulation can make it difficult to successfully conceive.

If you aren’t experiencing healthy ovulation, it could be a sign of hormone imbalance.

Why is it important to know when you ovulate?

If you are trying to conceive, knowing when you ovulate is critical for timing intercourse. An egg must be fertilized 12-24 hours after it is released, so predicting ovulation can help you time intercourse correctly to give the best chance at conceiving.

Having successful ovulation also gives you insight to your general health and wellbeing. It means your body is working properly and is producing the correct amount of progesterone.

What is the difference between predicting and confirming ovulation?

Predicting ovulation involves tracking the hormones and signs leading up to ovulation, namely luteinizing hormone or LH for short. LH spikes right before ovulation and functions to cause the mature follicle to rupture.

You need an LH surge in order to ovulate therefore testing and predicting ovulation is essential. The most common ways to predict ovulation include ovulation predictor kits (LH tests), cervical mucus monitoring, and basal body temperature monitoring.

Ovulation typically occurs about 12-48 hours after a positive LH test (if that’s the method you choose to use). A positive LH test predicts ovulation.

Confirming ovulation, on the other hand, is all about tracking hormones released after ovulation. Progesterone is only released by an empty follicle after it releases an egg. Therefore, the presence of progesterone confirms ovulation.

The best way to confirm successful ovulation involves tracking PdG levels, a progesterone marker found in urine. Tracking your levels days 7, 8, 9 and 10 after you’ve predicted ovulation will let you know if you’ve confirmed a “successful” ovulation, meaning that ovulation occurred and PdG levels remained elevated to provide the best chance at conception that cycle.

Proov Confirm is the first and only FDA cleared PdG test to confirm successful ovulation at home.

So, what do you mean by successful ovulation?

We’re glad you asked! While blood tests can confirm the presence of progesterone and therefore ovulation, they only show progesterone levels at one point in time.

For ovulation to be considered “successful,” the empty follicle must release enough progesterone throughout the luteal phase, with the highest days being days 7-10 after ovulation. But, because progesterone fluctuates high and low in a 24-hour period, a single blood test doesn’t always provide the full picture.

Tracking PdG levels with Proov Confirm takes only 10 minutes and you can test over several days to confirm successful ovulation.